FDM
ECONOMIC WATCH
fdmonline.com
Kim Kennedy
Economics editor
New trends in
population growth
The downturn in the housing
market may be having unintended effects on the movement
of the population. And that change
could, in a vicious cycle, end up slowing
the recovery in the housing market.
Migration to the hottest growing areas
of the country has slowed, even though
the U.S. population continues to move
toward the South and the West.
230,000 per year in the three prior years.
The most likely reason for the slowdown in population gains is that these
areas are steeped in foreclosures. This
prevents many would-be migrants from
moving there for fear of even more
weakness in home prices.
And there’s the rub: until home
prices begin to improve, the population will stay put and home buying
won’t recover.
●
Areas that were
less affected
by the housing
surge are now
benefiting from
strong population
growth.
Small changes
Los Angeles, for example, remains
the second largest metropolitan area in
the country with a population of nearly
12. 9 million people, but that level barely
changed from 2006-2007: the population rose by just 8,753 people, or 0.1
percent. In metropolitan Miami, the
population actually slipped by 2,228
people over the year to 5.413 million
in 2007. Across all of hard-hit Florida,
annual in-migration slowed to just
35,000 in 2007, down from an average of
New growth areas
Conversely, areas with the strongest
gains in the population from 2006-
2007 were often located in metropolitan areas that were less affected by the
strong upsurge in the housing market
during the previous five years. For
example, Texas did not see the huge
run-up in home prices that was rampant along the nation’s coastal areas.
And yet from 2006-2007, four Texas
metros were among the 10 areas with
Metro areas with the largest gains in population 2006-07
Rank
Metro area
●
1 Dallas-Fort Worth, TX
2 Atlanta, GA
3 Phoenix, AZ
4 Houston, TX
5 Riverside-San Bernardino, CA
6 Charlotte, NC-SC
7 Chicago, IL-IN-WI
8 Austin, TX
9 Las Vegas, NV
10 San Antonio, TX
Source: U. S. Bureau of the Census
Population in millions
July 1, 2007 July 1, 2006
6.145 5.983
5.279 5.128
4.179 4.047
5.628 5.508
4.081 3.995
1.652 1.585
9.525 9.458
1.598 1.532
1.836 1.777
1.991 1.937
2006-2007 change
Number Percent
162,250 2.7
151,063 2.9
132,513 3. 3
120,544 2.2
86,660 2.2
66,724 4.2
66,231 0.7
65,880 4. 3
59,165 3. 3
53,925 2.8
Four cities in Texas, together with Atlanta, Ga. and Charlotte, N.C., did not experience a large run-up in housing prices; now they are experiencing a population increase.
