araymond@raymondnet.com
You’ve spent the last year or so battening down your hatches in response to the lousy economy. Now signs of a bottom are showing up.
Of course, reaching bottom does not mean a recovery is imminent. Regaining a healthy housing market, reducing unemployment, and growing consumer spending will take time. Just look at the 1991 recession when 38 months passed from the bottom until housing starts regained a healthy run rate of 1. 5 million.
No matter the trajectory of the recovery, it’s time to start thinking about what the post-recession world will look like. The real issue to understand as a business owner or senior executive is the character -- the personality -- of the economy on the other side of the bottom. Will the experience of this recession cause the participants in our economy to retrench, to act differently? Or will we simply resume life as before? Just what will the new normal look like?
The longer this recession lasts, the more likely individuals will adjust their behaviors. Only a slight shift in attitudes toward products, companies, and spending can significantly impact the millions of interactions that make up our economy. Combine this economic effect with emerging generational differences, and it’s easy to see that tomorrow may not be like yesterday. Such changes may have huge consequences for your business unless you prepare for them.
Hopefully in surviving this downturn you have not left your company’s strategy – your plan for the future –
unattended. Opportunities abound. Now is the time for courage. History proves the bottom of an economic cycle to be a fertile time for new business ventures. In earlier downturns brave entrepreneurs started great companies like FedEx, Apple, Microsoft, and Southwest Airlines.
Here’s what some futurists say about consumers’ reactions to this recession and possible outcomes:
People are simplifying their lives.
Quality will replace quantity as materialism and its impact on the planet becomes a more significant concern.
People yearn for simpler choices. Too much variety and complexity in purchase decisions are anathema. Time is of the essence; back to basics is the objective.
People want value for their money. We are entering a new era of thrift. Value will be defined as more for the same, the same for less, and less for even less.
People need reassurance. They will buy products and services from companies they trust. A face-to-face human connection will trump technology in delivering that need.
In short, these futurists say that the go-go years are over. People are seeking safety, permanence, and security not only from their own actions and those of their government but also from the companies they deal with. For those companies whose products don’t match these new definitions of value, simplicity, and quality, this vision of the future may not include them.
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