Business conditions moving down in all regions
Diffusion index for billings: 50 - no change from previous quarter;
data are not seasonally adjusted

80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10

06:Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

West South Northeast Midwest

07:Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 08:Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

The building decline is leaving no part of the country untouched, according to the survey of architects.

 

“The AIA billings index for residential architects fell to 19. 5 in the fourth quarter of 2008, down from 42.3 in the fourth quarter of 2007 and 60.9 in the fourth quarter of 2005 (the index scores are not seasonally adjusted, so it is difficult to compare fourth quarter scores with other quarters during the year). Since any score below 50 on this index implies that national billings are falling at architectural firms, a score below 20 points to a very significant

downturn in business levels,” Baker says.

The downturn is being felt all across the country, the report stated. “Recently, business has fallen sharply at firms in the West, which recorded a billings index of 13. 9 in the fourth quarter. However, the scores for the other regions — 18. 5 in the Midwest, 20. 8 in the South and 25 in the Northeast — also point to a steep drop in business levels recently,” according to

the report.

Similarly, all major market sectors reported feeling the pinch, including custom and luxury homes, which resisted the market decline longest. However, the report suggests some faint signs of recovery in one segment.

“At present, the downturn in the entry-level market looks to have begun to stabilize, and the steepest declines are occurring in the second/ vacation home sector as well as the trade-up market. The home improvement sectors are seeing the most modest downturns but until the broader economy and the housing market stabilize, it is unlikely that home improvements will see a turnaround,” the report concluded. ●

 

For a complete copy of the report, go to http://www.fdmonline.

com/ trends.aspx

fdmonline.com

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